Pakistan’s inflation is expected to edge higher in April as the Ministry of Finance projects it in the range of 8-9%, as supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty continue to exert pressure on prices despite signs of macroeconomic stability.

In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for April 2026, the ministry warned that inflationary pressures were being driven largely by supply-side constraints, even as the broader economy remained on a stable footing.

The report noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, had heightened uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook.

The ministry said inflation, measured by the consumer price index, was expected to rise from 7.3% in March to 8–9% in April. “External demand may remain supportive in some markets, but the balance of risk becomes less favourable than in a pre-war setting,” the report stated.

At the same time, the report pointed to continued resilience in key economic indicators. The overall primary surplus during the first eight months of the current fiscal year stood at 3.3% of GDP (Rs4.319 trillion), compared to 3% (Rs3.452 trillion) in the same period last year.