Italy’s lower house of parliament on ​Thursday approved a highly contested government plan to overhaul the electoral law, a move ‌opponents denounced as an attempt to help Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni retain power in the next election due in 2027.

The proposal by the ruling right-wing coalition, comprising Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia, would introduce a ​fully proportional system while guaranteeing a majority to any bloc winning more than 42% of ​the vote.

Winners surpassing that threshold would receive a bonus of 70 seats in ⁠the 400-member lower house and 35 seats in the 200-member Senate. However, their total representation would ​be capped at 220 and 113 seats, respectively, in a bid to avoid overly large majorities.

The debate over ​the reform exposed tensions within the alliance. On Tuesday, lawmakers rejected a government proposal to allow electors to express preference votes for candidates on party lists, partly due to coalition defections.

No more first-past-the-post

The bill still requires Senate approval, which the ​government hopes to secure after the summer recess.

Under the current system, most lawmakers are elected through proportional ​representation, while roughly a third are chosen in first-past-the-post constituencies that analysts say tend to favour the opposition.

The reform ‌would ⁠abolish the first-past-the-post seats, including in southern Italy, where the centre-left alliance led by the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5-Star Movement is seen as particularly competitive.

Government supporters say the reform would guarantee that a stable majority comes out of the vote. Meloni is due to become Italy’s longest-serving postwar prime minister ​in early September, after presiding ​over an unusually ⁠prolonged period of stability.

Emerging far-right force

The rise of a new far-right movement has unsettled Meloni’s camp in recent months, siphoning support from the ruling coalition and raising questions ​about its prospects at the next election.

Futuro Nazionale, led by former army ​general Roberto ⁠Vannacci, is now polling at just over 6%. The party has overtaken the League in some surveys, weakening the coalition as it remains unclear whether Vannacci would ultimately align with Meloni.

According to a simulation by pollster YouTrend, ⁠a ​right-wing alliance including Futuro Nazionale could secure a majority, while the ​centre-left could prevail if Vannacci chose to run separately.

“The outcome of the next election will depend not only on the electoral ​law, but crucially on where Futuro Nazionale positions itself,” YouTrend said.